Unemployment

Stocks End Mixed Despite Positive Employment Report
Unemployment

Stocks End Mixed Despite Positive Employment Report

The major U.S. indexes were mixed over the past week after large employment gains.
rose 0.68% over the past week.
After trending below last month’s R1 resistance levels, the index moved marginally higher toward its new R1 resistance level at $240.90.
Traders should watch for a breakout from these levels toward R2 resistance at $243.73 or a move lower to its pivot point at $236.71.
Looking at technical indicators, the RSI is getting lofty at 65.70, while the MACD remains in a bullish uptrend. )
rose 0.33% over the past week.
Looking at technical indicators, the RSI appears lofty at 63.68, but the MACD remains in a bullish uptrend dating back to late-April. )
rose 1.13% over the past week, making it the best performing major index.
Traders should watch for a breakout from these levels toward R2 resistance at $140.20 or a move lower to its trend line support at around $135.75.
The Bottom Line The major U.S. indexes were mixed over the past week with small-caps underperforming and technology stocks outperforming.

Tight Jobs Market Equals Higher Pay, Lower Profits — Heard on the Street
Unemployment

Tight Jobs Market Equals Higher Pay, Lower Profits — Heard on the Street

Tight Jobs Market Equals Higher Pay, Lower Profits — Heard on the Street.
The job market has gone from tightening to tight.
It is a difference that matters to investors.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% from March, but were still only up 2.5% from a year earlier.
Second, the job market is tight.
That is reflected not just in the unemployment rate, but also the Labor Department’s broader measures of unemployment, which are all near decade lows.
Third, companies so far have gotten away with raising wages only slowly, but that will change very soon.
A 4.4% unemployment rate is reflective of a job market where many workers can demand better pay, or take their work elsewhere.
For businesses, it is time to think differently about growth and labor costs.
Profit growth for big companies in the first quarter was strong despite the sluggish economy because executives kept a tight lid on spending, including on workers.

US jobs report: 5 things to know
Unemployment

US jobs report: 5 things to know

US jobs report: 5 things to know.
Jobs set to bounce back in April Economists surveyed by CNNMoney predict the US economy added 190,000 jobs in April, which would be far better than the 98,000 jobs added in March.
The figure for March will be revised on Friday.
Wage growth is expected to post a solid 2.6% gain.
Trump jobs under the microscope President Trump has taken credit for adding as many as 600,000 jobs, and the White House has dialed that back to 533,000 jobs.
Counting those two months, the economy has added 317,000 jobs during his tenure.
April will be Trump’s third jobs report.
They’ve added 37,000 manufacturing jobs in Trump’s first two reports.
Friday’s report will show if the momentum has continued.
Growth has been slow but consistent for the last eight years.

How the economy is really doing
Unemployment

How the economy is really doing

Will the US economy perk up under President Trump?
That is clearly good news for Trump.
Even the so-called underemployment rate, a number some consider the “real” unemployment rate since it includes people working part-time that want a full-time job, fell to 8.9% in March.
The Fed said that consumer credit rose 4.8% annually in February (the most recent figures available) to $3.79 trillion.
Demand for these loans have fallen for two straight months and are down from a recent peak of $2.1 trillion in November.
It’s not a cause for alarm just yet, but if businesses stop borrowing to finance growth and subsequently hire less as a result, that could be a problem for Trump.
Consumer spending makes up a majority of the nation’s overall economic activity.
The government said in April that retail sales fell 0.2% in March, following a 0.3% decline in February.
The US trade deficit has narrowed only slightly in the past few months — and the gap has widened with China and Mexico.
And the overall trade deficit is still significant — $43.7 trillion.

Taken for a rideSaudi women are a captive market for Uber and Careem
Unemployment

Taken for a rideSaudi women are a captive market for Uber and Careem

Taken for a rideSaudi women are a captive market for Uber and Careem.
NASHMIAH Alenzy, a doctor in Saudi Arabia’s conservative Qassim region, uses ride-hailing apps at least two or three times a week, and sometimes every day, to get to work or to run errands.
Barred from driving in a country with non-existent public transport, Saudi women are a profitable prospect for ride-hailing companies.
Careem, a firm valued at $1bn that is based in Dubai and operates across the Middle East, north Africa and South Asia, set up shop in 2013.
Uber followed in 2014.
Both firms are directly backed by the Saudi state.
Both help (male) participation in the gig economy, in line with an aim to push more Saudis into the private sector, which is currently dominated by expatriates.
Around two-thirds of those in work are employed in the cushy public sector.
Ride-hailing services also help with the government’s stated aim of boosting women’s labour-market activity.
The state ensures that women are dependent on men to get around, says Hatoon al Fassi, an academic, and is now profiting from that dependence.

Jobs Report: This Is What Full Employment Looks Like
Unemployment

Jobs Report: This Is What Full Employment Looks Like

Jobs Report: This Is What Full Employment Looks Like.
But the string of disappointments is likely to come to a halt in the Labor Department’s April jobs report.
That marked only the sixth time in the past five years in which fewer than 100,000 net jobs were added in a given month.
For instance, only 43,000 jobs were added last May, at the time fanning fears of a hiring slowdown.
Similar trends followed disappointing monthly reports for March 2015 and December 2013.
The last time fewer than 100,000 jobs were added in back-to-back months was six-and-a-half years ago, early in the recovery.
And LinkedIn’s own employment report showed April was the best month for hiring since June 2015.
In 2014, the economy added an average of 250,000 jobs a month.
That average slipped to 226,000 in 2015, 187,000 last year and 178,000 through the first three months of this year.
If the first-quarter average of 178,000 monthly gains is maintained over the next 12 months, the unemployment rate would fall to 4.1%, the lowest since December 2000.

BOND REPORT: 10-year Treasury Yield Hit A 3-week High
Unemployment

BOND REPORT: 10-year Treasury Yield Hit A 3-week High

BOND REPORT: 10-year Treasury Yield Hit A 3-week High.
Congress passes to repeal-and-replace Obamacare Treasury prices fell Thursday, allowing yields to extend their rise to two days, ahead of a closely watched reading of employment set to be released Friday.
The yield on the 10-year note moved up 4.5 basis points to 2.354%, the highest level since April 10, according to Dow Jones data.
The yield rise comes after the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting committee on Wednesday signaled plans to lift rates at least twice more in 2017 were undeterred by a spate of weak economic reports.
Traders said investors continue to sell government paper 24 hours after the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged, while reaffirming its intention to normalize monetary policy, including lifting rates off ultralow levels and shrinking its $4.5 trillion balance sheet.
The market will be intently anticipating a reading of the health of U.S. employment, when the Labor Department releases its nonfarm-payrolls report early Friday.
Particular attention will be paid to wage growth, which traders look at to gauge inflation expectations.
A reading of initial-jobless claims, a measure of how many new individuals file to receive state unemployment benefits, released on Thursday slipped 19,000 to notch 238,000 claims (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-jobless-claims-fall-sharply-in-latest-week-2017-05-04) for the week ended April 29, suggesting the job market remains strong.
Treasury yields continued their ascent after the spate of data releases.
The spread between the two sovereign bonds narrowed 5 basis points, also underscoring fading fears a Le Pen win.

Here’s your full preview of Friday’s jobs report
Unemployment

Here’s your full preview of Friday’s jobs report

Here’s your full preview of Friday’s jobs report.
Via Bloomberg, here’s what Wall Street is expecting for April: Nonfarm payrolls: +190,000 Unemployment rate: 4.6% Average hourly earnings month-on-month: +0.3% Average hourly earnings year-on-year: +2.7% Average weekly hours worked: 34.4 To recap, the economy added 98,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate fell to a postcrisis low of 4.5%.
That’s likely part of what prompted the Federal Reserve to conclude in its meeting this week that the underlying drivers of consumption are “solid,” and first-quarter weakness was “transitory.”
The Fed will have the April and May jobs reports on hand before its meeting next month at which markets expect it will raise interest rates. “One group that has been rejoining the labor force is prime age (ages 25-54) men and women without a college degree,” said Nomura’s Lewis Alexander in a note.
The gain since then is small compared to the post-recession drop, but could be a reason why participation may not fall in the coming months, Alexander said.
Weather aside, retail lost nearly 30,000 jobs and the vast majority were in large department stores.
Several of them are shutting down or at risk of closing as ecommerce booms.
The job losses in February and March marked the worst two-month decline since November and December 2009, and is showing scant signs of slowing down.
More: Jobs Report

Hiring rebound? What to watch in April jobs report
Unemployment

Hiring rebound? What to watch in April jobs report

Hiring rebound?
What to watch in April jobs report.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Hiring in the U.S. likely snapped back in April after disappointingly small gain in March, pointing to an economy that’s still strong enough to nudge the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again within a few months.
April rebound Economists polled by MarketWatch estimate the U.S. economy created 190,000 jobs month, bouncing back after a paltry 98,000 increase in March.
The size of the workforce is growing about half as much a month.
The 3% pay hump Hourly pay has been rising over the past two years as a dwindling pool of labor forces companies to pay workers more, but wages still aren’t growing as fast as they did during prior economic recoveries.
Watch the U6 unemployment rate.
The unemployment rate used by the government as the official measure, known as U3, is already quite low at 4.5%.
The official unemployment rate just counts jobless Americans actively looking for full-time work.
Economists look for a bigger increase in construction jobs after a small gain in March.

Ten years on: How safe are banks?Another crisis one day cannot be ruled out
Unemployment

Ten years on: How safe are banks?Another crisis one day cannot be ruled out

Ten years on: How safe are banks?Another crisis one day cannot be ruled out.
IN 1992 SWEDEN nationalised (and subsequently merged) two banks: Gota Bank and Nordbanken, which was already mostly owned by the state.
The one of 2007-08 was the biggest and worst since the 1930s, so the recovery was bound to take time.
Economic growth in America restarted in 2009 and has continued ever since, in one of the longest periods of expansion since the second world war.
The economy recovered its pre-crisis level of GDP per person only in 2013.
America’s ratio of debt to GDP rose by about half between 2007 and 2011, though it has since steadied.
Although some have declined in the past couple of years, the countries’ ratios are still far above pre-crisis levels (see chart).
Central banks’ balance-sheets and interest rates also still bear the imprint of the crisis, not least because monetary rather than fiscal policy has been the principal, even sole, means of post-crisis macroeconomic support.
Economic crises always have political consequences, which loop back into economic policy for decades to come.
Bankers’ recent grumbles about capital requirements and the burden of supervision have caused some to worry that bad old habits may be returning.