Tag: Donald Trump

In this small Kentucky town, they aren’t waiting on Washington to fix things
Welfare

In this small Kentucky town, they aren’t waiting on Washington to fix things

Less than a third of its 6,580 residents are working.
CNNMoney first traveled to Beattyville in January, and found a town full of hope that an unconventional new president could bring positive change and believed Trump’s promises that he would create more jobs.
But is it gonna solve Eastern Kentucky’s problems? “Trump does need to get us work back here,” says Maggard, who voted for Trump and thinks he’s done a good job so far.
Beattyville is luckier than many Eastern Kentucky towns.
Larry Phillips owns an auto repair shop in Beattyville that used to get more business from the coal trucks that once rumbled through town.
He voted for and still supports Trump, who he thinks may still bring the coal industry back in time. “The one thing about here is we have to learn to support each other,” says Shouse. “The people that are the ones that’s working, we’re the needy ones,” says Shouse.
Regardless of what the tax proposals in Congress or the budget hold, Beattyville residents say they’re not waiting to find out what will happen in Washington.

GOP says it’s got a deal on taxes; cuts coming for next year
Unemployment

GOP says it’s got a deal on taxes; cuts coming for next year

Middle- and low-income families would get smaller tax cuts, though Trump and GOP leaders have billed the package as a huge benefit for the middle class.
The legislation, which is still being finalized, would cut the top tax rate for the wealthy from 39.6 percent to 37 percent, slash the corporate income tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent and allow homeowners to deduct interest only on the first $750,000 of a new mortgage.
Details of the agreement were described by Republican senators and congressional aides.
Negotiators have removed several controversial provisions from the tax bill, including one that would have eliminated the deduction for interest on student loans and another deduction for medical expenses, said two congressional aides.
The tax bill would scale back the deduction for state and local taxes, allowing families to deduct only up to a total of $10,000 in property and income taxes.
Business owners who report business income on their personal tax returns would be able to deduct 20 percent of that income.
Scrapping the individual mandate would provide them with more than $300 billion for deeper tax cuts while undermining the law.
Senate leaders plan to vote on the package Tuesday.
The committee is charged with blending the tax bills passed by the House and Senate, though Republicans have done all of their negotiations behind closed doors.
Once the plan is signed into law, workers could start seeing changes in the amount of taxes withheld from their paychecks early next year, lawmakers said — though taxpayers won’t file their 2018 returns until the following year.

Powell faces early test on policy as tax cuts near approval
Unemployment

Powell faces early test on policy as tax cuts near approval

Powell in statements throughout the year, culminating with his recent Senate confirmation hearing, has been clear he sees little risk of inflation that would prompt the Fed to raise rates faster than expected, and takes weak wage growth as a sign that sidelined workers remain to be drawn into jobs.
Employment in November grew faster than expected, but wage growth remained muted.
Some policymakers feel the central bank has already undercut its credibility by raising interest rates while inflation remains so weak.
“If the Fed gets its paradigm wrong and sees inflation that ultimately doesn’t materialize, and they take rates too far, then markets would feel aggrieved,” said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust in Chicago, and a former senior risk official at the Fed Board.
He expects the Fed under Powell to only raise rates twice next year.
They are expected to raise interest rates for the third time this year.
The economy is arguably as much as a half a percentage point below full employment, a condition in which prices and wages should be rising.
As the tax plan advanced in Congress, forecasting shops at Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and others penciled in a faster pace of Fed rate increases – essentially expecting the Fed would need to lean against the inflationary outcome.
His outlook is consistent with positions Trump and current chair Janet Yellen have taken, and the depth of his commitment to that view will be a critical part of the Fed’s debate about whether and how to react to the tax plan.
But when asked about Fed staff research that challenged a key Republican premise that corporate tax cuts generate jobs, Powell kept his distance.

Americans Give Trump Higher Grades on Economy Than Overall
Unemployment

Americans Give Trump Higher Grades on Economy Than Overall

A Gallup survey from November showed the president’s approval rating for his handling of the economy at 45%, eight points ahead of his overall approval number, which sagged to 37%. “He’s a political contortionist in that he has high economic numbers and very low personal approval ratings.
On Friday, the White House celebrated the December jobs report that showed the economy gaining 228,000 jobs in November.
Mr. McInturff directs the Journal/NBC News poll with Democrat Fred Yang.
They weren’t in a mood to pursue impeachment,” Mr. Hart said.
Write to Eli Stokols at eli.stokols@wsj.com Although President Donald Trump’s overall approval ratings have hit record lows, he is getting significantly higher marks in one important area: his handling of the economy.
A Gallup survey from November showed the president’s approval rating for his handling of the economy at 45%, eight points ahead of his overall approval number, which sagged to 37%. “He’s a political contortionist in that he has high economic numbers and very low personal approval ratings.
On Friday, the White House celebrated the December jobs report that showed the economy gaining 228,000 jobs in November.
Mr. McInturff directs the Journal/NBC News poll with Democrat Fred Yang.

AP FACT CHECK: Trump off on black homeownership, trade
Unemployment

AP FACT CHECK: Trump off on black homeownership, trade

The U.S. Census finds that the black homeownership rate peaked during 2004, when 49.7 percent of black households owned homes (the rate for all races that year reached 69.2 percent, also a modern record).
This year: 42.7 percent in the first quarter, 42.3 percent in the second and 42 percent in the third.
Quarterly rates this year for the total U.S. population: 63.6 percent, 63.7 percent and 63.9 percent.
THE FACTS: His win was far from a landslide.
The final Electoral College margin was Trump 306, Hillary Clinton 232, for a winning percentage of just under 57 percent.
Barack Obama won both of his presidential elections with bigger Electoral College margins: 61 percent in 2008 and 62 percent in 2012.
Median household wealth is still 34 percent below its 2007, prerecession level, Wolff calculates.
___ TRUMP: “You know, we have factories pouring back into our country.
THE FACTS: It’s not true that wages haven’t gone up for 20 years.
The last time unemployment was this low — in 2000 — that figure was rising at 4 percent.

Strong November U.S. job gains anticipated; wages seen rising
Unemployment

Strong November U.S. job gains anticipated; wages seen rising

According to a Reuters survey of economists, the Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday will likely show that nonfarm payrolls rose by 200,000 jobs last month after surging 261,000 in October.
The unemployment rate is forecast to be unchanged at a 17-year low of 4.1 percent.
Readings in line with expectations would underscore the economy’s strength and fuel criticism of efforts by Trump and his fellow Republicans in the U.S. Congress to cut the corporate income tax rate to 20 percent from 35 percent.
Republicans argue that the proposed tax cut package will boost the economy and allow companies to hire more workers. “It’s labor, that the economy is running out of.”
While November’s employment report will probably have little impact on expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its Dec. 12-13 policy meeting, it could help shape the debate on monetary policy next year.
Job growth has averaged 168,000 jobs per month this year, down from the average monthly gain of 187,000 in 2016.
A slowdown in job growth is normal when the labor market nears full employment.
The economy needs to create 75,000 to 100,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population.
Employment gains were likely broad in November.

U.S. trade deficit with China and Mexico is growing
Unemployment

U.S. trade deficit with China and Mexico is growing

President Trump’s most hated number is getting bigger.
Trump often cites the U.S. trade deficit as a sign that America is losing to China, Mexico and other countries on trade.
He uses it to justify renegotiating trade deals and slapping tariffs on other countries’ products.
But so far this year, it’s only growing.
And the gap with Trump’s two favorite rhetorical trade targets, Mexico and China, is getting bigger.
The overall trade deficit with Mexico is up 11% this year, and the deficit with China is up 7%.
It means American businesses and consumers bought more goods and services from Mexico or China than those countries’ consumers bought from American businesses.
When the U.S. economy was growing 4% a year in the late 1990s, the trade deficit was ballooning.
Unemployment is 4.1%, the lowest since 2000.
Exports are up 5%.

Is Trump keeping his promises on manufacturing?
Unemployment

Is Trump keeping his promises on manufacturing?

In President Trump’s first year in office, American factories are adding jobs at the fastest pace since 2014.
But a weaker dollar, which makes it easier for American companies to sell products abroad, and an ever-stronger global economy have also helped factories grow.
And the United States has added 138,000 manufacturing jobs so far this year, far better than the 34,000 factory jobs lost over the same period last year.
Last year’s losses reinforced President Trump’s portrayal of manufacturing in a long decline.
Trump campaigned heavily on bringing manufacturing jobs back to the United States, particularly by renegotiating America’s trade deals, such as NAFTA, the pact with Canada and Mexico.
When the dollar’s value is high, as it was in 2015, when manufacturing was in a recession, U.S. exports are more expensive and less attractive to foreign buyers.
Put those two factors together, and it’s not surprising that U.S. exports were up 8% in the first half of this year compared with the same period in 2016.
Another factor: The U.S. economy is performing well.
The economy has added jobs for 85 consecutive months, the longest streak in recorded U.S. history. “Our job as a manufacturing industry overall is to embrace something that’s unavoidable and retrain workers,” Curá says.

Insider Q&A: Economist Diane Swonk on what’s ahead in 2018
Unemployment

Insider Q&A: Economist Diane Swonk on what’s ahead in 2018

WASHINGTON – U.S. economic growth has accelerated after a sluggish start to the year, while unemployment has fallen to the lowest point in almost 17 years and the stock market has been climbing to record highs.
Q: How is the economy shaping up for next year?
A: Next year looks like it will be a little north of 2 percent GDP growth, not quite as strong as this year.
Q: Does your forecast reflect any impact from Trump’s proposed tax cuts?
The tax cuts will add quite a bit to overall debt in the U.S. economy, and that will mean higher interest rates down the road, something the markets won’t like.
Markets expect it.
Q: Some are worried that the Fed’s extended period of low rates is creating dangerous asset bubbles in such areas as stock prices.
Are you worried?
We are in period of time where the Fed needs to shift the communications so the market doesn’t feel that low rates are still baked into the cake.
That is when you start worrying that maybe it is time to book the profits you have.

BOND REPORT: Treasurys Rally After Report Says Flynn Will Testify About Trump
Unemployment

BOND REPORT: Treasurys Rally After Report Says Flynn Will Testify About Trump

What are yields doing?
The 2-year Treasury note yieldfell 2.4 basis point to 1.762%.
The 30-year bond yield plummeted 9.7 basis points to 2.743% Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields.
Flynn had pleaded guilty on Friday to making false statements to the FBI (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/michael-flynn-charged-with-lying-to-fbi-about-russian-ambassador-conversations-2017-12-01)about his contact with Russia.
The 11th-hour hiccup has drawn concerns over the viability of the current version of the Senate tax cuts.
Read: Here’s what’s next for the Senate’s tax bill (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-whats-next-for-the-senates-tax-bill-2017-11-30) A new bill that was closer to becoming deficit-neutral would allay concerns that the Treasury Department will have to increase the size of their debt auctions, which could be bearish for government paper.
But given the risk rally we’ve seen this week, we’re going risk-off.
If you look at the week itself, we’re still probably higher on stocks, certainly the [ABC news report] is giving investors much to digest,” said Marvin Loh, senior fixed-income strategist at BNY Mellon.
Even after the sudden plunge in stocks, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is still higher overall for the week.
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard said the yield curve, a line tracing Treasury maturities against their yields, was at risk of inverting (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-bullard-warns-yield-curve-could-invert-next-year-2017-12-01) next year, considered a precursor to a recession.